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Assessing Arsenal’s First Four Fixtures
Arsenal’s start to the 2023/24 season has divided opinion. On the face of it, a total of 10 points out of a possible 12 is an extremely creditable return, especially given that last season’s perfect start is the only time that total has been bettered in the last 13 seasons. Another late show against Manchester United gained back two points that had been lost in bitterly disappointing circumstances against ten man Fulham. Remaining within touching distance of Manchester City is crucial if the club is to realise its title ambitions this term. But as comes with the territory of being a fan of any club, negatives can always be inferred. Whether it be Jurrien Timber’s serious injury, Kai Havertz’s frustrating start or Mikel Arteta’s tactical tinkering, a slight restlessness among some fans has crept in recently. Such was the serene and overwhelmingly positive reaction to a breakthrough 2022/23 campaign, any dissenting voices become magnified at this moment.
Arsenal’s Points After Four Games Since 2011
But regardless of wider opinion, the presence of Manchester City makes Arsenal’s start to the 2023/24 season difficult to assess. Performances have been reasonable as the Understat xG table will attest to. Arsenal predictably rank second in that metric, behind the Community Shield runners-up, while xG and xGC values are very closely aligned with goals scored and conceded at this early stage. Results have been fine too – one set of dropped points in a four game period is perfectly acceptable but equally not outstanding either given a fairly favourable set of fixtures. Those first four matches of course included three at home and the absence of any midweek matches. That is about to change as two games a week becomes the norm again.
The current top two visit The Emirates between now and the October international break, while ordinarily favourable away trips to Everton and Bournemouth are made that little bit trickier as they both precede Champions League fixtures by just three days. A testing period awaits. It is therefore difficult to get too excited by the club’s start to the season as the upcoming run of fixtures will test the squad’s ability, depth and resolve. Heading into that huge home clash against Manchester City on Sunday 8th October in winning form is pivotal. After all, Pep Guardiola’s treble winners’ pursuit of perfection makes every dropped point feel like a costly mistake. Not many of those can be afforded if Arsenal are to break this 20 year Premier League trophy drought.
This issue of comparing every outcome to Manchester City will be all too familiar for Liverpool fans. Having gone head-to-head with City for several years before a dip in their standards last season, Jurgen Klopp’s men look back to something near themselves. Matching Arsenal’s total of 10 points despite a trickier early schedule, Liverpool have forced their way into the early title conversation. Ideally, their presence will take some of the attention and pressure away from Arsenal and prevent obsessing over a straight shoot-out with City for 38 weeks. Having to match City’s every move post-Christmas was emotionally draining as a fan and it perhaps took its toll on the players too in the club’s title challenge collapse. Defensive injuries and some tough fixtures also played their part, but that can happen to any team.
But wherever these ramblings are directed, ultimately nothing is decided at this stage, nor will be decided until the spring. Arsenal are in the mix and have performed capably enough in the first four matches. The effect of Champions League participation remains to be seen, but with tougher fixtures to come and a greater volume of games too, Arteta will be desperate to get the team clicking again like the brilliant team we became from August to March last season.
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Potential Rice Transfer A Mark Of Arsenal’s Progress
Two years ago, it was virtually impossible to foresee that Declan Rice’s likely next destination would be Arsenal. The Gunners had just come off back-to-back eighth place finishes, the latter of which placed the club four points below West Ham. Rice meanwhile had chalked up 131 Premier League appearances at that point, establishing himself as one of the division’s best young players, ahead of the delayed Euro 2020 tournament, in which he excelled and started every game. Champions League qualifying Manchester United and Chelsea were swirling. In June 2021, it looked certain that he would bolster the midfield of either of those sides, with the London club heavy favourites. It was just a matter of time. Yet as this summer’s transfer window opens, Rice’s next club is expected to be Arsenal. The fact that we are frontrunners to sign one of the Premier League’s most sought after players is a testament to the club’s progress in the past couple of seasons.
Let’s not forget, Arsenal were not even in European competition following Rice’s rising prominence and emergence on the international scene at Euro 2020. Failing to qualify for Europe for the first time in 25 years was one of many low points in a steady decade of decline in the 2010’s. A strong end to the 2020/21 season did at least provide some room for optimism. Short-term, it was five wins from five to finish the campaign. Longer-term, 1.96 points per game post-Christmas was only bettered by champions Manchester City. Those results in the first of 2021 marked hidden progress as performances picked up following Emile Smith Rowe’s emergence and the loan signing of Martin Odegaard. Coinciding with Gabriel Martinelli’s return from injury and Bukayo Saka’s return to form, both provided much needed energy and creativity to a previously tepid attack.
Aside from the three early defeats in 2021/22 and the associated downbeat feeling around the club, Arsenal have been making gradual tangible progress since the winter of 2020 as Mikel Arteta’s team continued to evolve. Summer 2021 saw Ramsdale, Tomiyasu, White and Odegaard (loan turned permanent) all join and quickly become first-team regulars. The returning Saliba accompanied new arrivals Zinchenko and Jesus last summer to add further quality to an already impressive young team. And of course, we all know how the season just gone unfolded. Arsenal went from a good team to a great team in 2022/23, at a time that Chelsea went drastically the other way in what has been a reversal in fortunes of the two clubs in the last two years. Who expected that when Thomas Tuchel’s side carved us apart at The Emirates 22 months ago? Meanwhile, Manchester United filled their midfield void with experienced campaigners Casemiro and Christian Eriksen, taking Rice’s focus away from the Red Devils and obviously Chelsea. A void has opened up – suddenly there is an opportunity to sign one of Europe’s best young midfielders. It’s just as well Arteta’s promise that his Arsenal project would ‘go bang‘ came to fruition. Out of nowhere, Arsenal have been able to exploit this opportunity, becoming favourites to sign Rice. It is a mark of the club’s progress since Arteta arrived, but most notably in the last two years.
If we pull this transfer off, it will surely be the biggest statement of the Arteta era. Early on, mixed success in the market saw Thomas Partey and Gabriel recruited in 2020, but Arsenal were still hampered by existing issues in the squad (Sokratis, Mustafi, Ozil et al). Adding the likes of Cedric and Willian, neither of which were up to scratch created further problems for a team still nurturing the young group of academy graduates. In the summer of 2021, aforementioned important signings were made, but nobody really took notice. Moreover, we were ridiculed for signing White after his debut at Brentford, for buying Ramsdale before he kicked a ball and Tomiyasu as an unknown quantity to most onlookers. Zinchenko and Jesus last summer were of course statement signings, but their impact on and off the pitch was still underestimated. A transformative winning mentality effect swept the club as Jesus vowed the club could win the league on his first day and Ramsdale described how the club’s mentality completely changed during the same pre-season.
And that brings us to the present transfer window. Arsenal are an attractive proposition for top players again and have the financial muscle to recruit those prospects, which of course became a well-documented issue during the middle section of Arsene Wenger’s reign. Rice can enter a first XI that boasts nine players aged 26 or under. The only exceptions being Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka, hence the need for rejuvenation in central midfield, particularly with Jorginho and Mohamed Elneny in their early 30’s too. For the first time in what feels like forever, a top player is potentially taking the step up to join us when he has a number of possible suitors among Europe’s elite clubs. It would be a statement signing indicative of progress on the pitch and a consequential flourishing relationship between players and fans that any player would surely want to be part of. Let’s just hope we get this deal done in the coming weeks so that we can look forward to Declan Rice patrolling our midfield for the next five years or so.
Image Credit: Egghead06, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
AFC Writer 