Saturday’s game against Aston Villa has all the hallmarks of a tight affair between two good teams. It’s third against first, with both sides in great form but coming off the back of busy schedules and perhaps lacking the endurance to slug it out for 90 minutes at a high tempo. Our trips to Villa Park since they returned to the Premier League in 2019 have largely been of that ilk – close, low-scoring games. It’s three wins apiece in six encounters, with our free-scoring 2022/23 side the only team to break the trend of one side keeping a clean sheet.

2019/20: Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal
2020/21: Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal
2021/22: Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal
2022/23: Aston Villa 2-4 Arsenal
2023/24: Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal
2024/25: Aston Villa 0-2 Arsenal

Predicted Lineup

GK: David Raya
Raya had one of his typical performances on Wednesday against Brentford, impressing with some clever passes in build-up and pulling off one massive save to instinctively tip Kevin Schade’s header onto the crossbar. His long-term place in the Premier League and Champions League is guaranteed barring injury.

RB: Jurrien Timber
The Dutchman is certain to return to the starting XI and could play in his usual right-back position or continue at centre-back following Cristhian Mosquera’s ankle injury on Wednesday. Mikel Arteta has remained coy on the availability of Saliba, Rice and Trossard but my instinct/hope is that the Frenchman is available.

CB: William Saliba
Arteta said ahead of Brentford that Saliba was days away from returning and he continued to deliver the same update in today’s press conference. It really is a 50-50 between Saliba starting or not. We know Ben White will remain at right-back if Saliba isn’t fully match fit.

CB: Piero Hincapie
Our last man standing at centre-back. The Bundesliga winner has shown his class in recent weeks, adeptly filling in for Gabriel and keeping his first Premier League clean sheet against Brentford. With Ollie Watkins back amongst the goals midweek against Brighton, the Ecuadorian is in for a challenging afternoon.

LB: Myles Lewis-Skelly
Another 50-50 shout here. Given that Riccardo Calafiori played 90 minutes last time out, there is a chance that he is benched in favour of Lewis-Skelly. Barring a lapse in judgement where Michael Olise ran in behind to set up Lennert Karl’s equaliser for Bayern a week ago, Lewis-Skelly has done nothing wrong when deputising for Calafiori.

CM: Martin Zubimendi
Our classy maestro will continue in midfield here. Declan Rice recently described him as a classic Spanish number 6 and I could not have put it better myself. Our midfield pairing is now the perfect blend between Spanish silk and English engine, with Zubimendi and Rice complementing each other to perfection.

CM: Declan Rice
Although Rice gingerly exited the field on Wednesday night after 83 minutes, he has appeared to confirm that he is fine and available for selection even if Arteta remains more tight-lipped. With Brugge on the horizon and us in a comfortable position in the Champions League, an opportunity for Rice to rest is soon on the horizon.

AM: Eberechi Eze
We are blessed to have both of our number 10’s fit and available right now and after playing the full 90 against Brentford, it is likely to be Martin Odegaard’s turn to sit on the bench. Eze has found it tough to influence games for us on the left-wing, as was the case off the bench last time out. A dilemma remains for Arteta as to how to use both Odegaard and Eze together, if at all.

RW: Bukayo Saka
You simply don’t leave Saka out of the starting XI in consecutive games and having scored during his 30 minute substitute appearance on Wednesday, his recall to the side is a formality. Saka netted important goals at Villa Park in 2022 and 2023 and will be hoping to do the same once again.

LW: Gabriel Martinelli
I mentioned in the Brentford preview that I felt Aston Villa’s high defensive line suits Martinelli’s pace in behind so I have to continue to back that theory. In reality, both he and Madueke could cause problems in that position and both played just an hour on Wednesday night so this selection remains up for grabs. Our strength in depth is evident once again.

CF: Victor Gyokeres
Since the international break, Mikel Merino has now played 87 minutes against Spurs and three consecutive 90 minutes in games with Bayern, Chelsea and Brentford. His endurance and ability to impact games is unquestionable, but at some point, our Swedish marksman is going to get the nod on his return from injury. Could tomorrow be the day? It may well be.

Score Prediction

Similarly to Chelsea away last Sunday, this is a game where I am between 1-1 and 2-1 to us. It’s another tough away trip following that draw and the 2-2 at Sunderland before the international break. Hopefully it is third time lucky against a Villa side who have belied their underlying numbers to surge up the table into third position against the odds. Villa’s expected data has them in the Premier League’s bottom half so perhaps they may have a rare poor day in front of goal against our steely defence.

Closing Thoughts

So it’s the dreaded lunchtime kick-off once again. Win and you can enjoy the rest of the weekend’s football in peace. Fail to do so and it’s a slow, painful wait for City to close the gap at the top of the table. We of course know whatever happens that we will remain top of the Premier League for at least another week, but it would be nice to, at least briefly, sit eight points clear, wouldn’t it? COYG

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Featured Image Credit: Ian Wilson from London, England, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons